But the Ukrainian military may be able to capitalize on the chaos and weakening morale to try to make some gains, according to analysts. No Russian soldiers left their positions to come to Russia’s defense. The short-lived rebellion by the Wagner group on Saturday hasn’t had an immediate effect on the front line in southern Ukraine. Russian troops have shown competency fighting defensively, and Moscow’s formations have improved their tactics since earlier in the war. The slow pace is most likely the result of several factors. Kyiv’s formations have managed to take several small villages, but Ukrainian casualties are mounting. Ukrainian officials have said the counteroffensive is going as planned, even though it’s clear, through open source accounts, that Ukrainian vehicles - including recently supplied western tanks and armored personnel carriers - are being damaged and destroyed. Much of Ukraine is rolling steppe and forests, but the south is especially flat, making it more dangerous for advancing troops.

The southern offensive could determine the fate of the war, many military analysts believe.

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